Nigeria’s Opposition Titans Unite: A New Political Chapter Ahead of 2027

Edited By: Widad WAHBI

In a stunning realignment that could reshape Nigeria’s political future, two of the country’s most influential opposition leaders — Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi — have left their respective parties to join forces under the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Their departure from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) marks one of the most significant political shake-ups since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, and it sets the stage for a fierce battle against President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.

Learning from the Past: Why They United

This strategic alliance is a direct response to the outcome of the 2023 elections, in which Tinubu won with just 37% of the vote. Opposition voters were split, with Abubakar and Obi securing 29% and 25% respectively — a division that effectively handed Tinubu the presidency. Political analysts, such as Shehu Iliyasu, believe both leaders are seeking to correct that misstep. Their new collaboration aims to consolidate opposition strength and present a united front in 2027.

Joining the ADC provides a legal and operational platform without the delays and bureaucratic hurdles of registering a new party. Though not one of Nigeria’s “big parties,” the ADC offers national reach, a functioning political structure, and now, the backing of major figures such as David Mark, Uche Secondus, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi — all of whom bring credibility, resources, and regional influence.

A Fragile but Powerful Alliance

Despite the optimism, the coalition faces internal challenges. One pressing question remains: Can Obi accept a vice-presidential role again? His departure from the PDP in 2022 stemmed precisely from his refusal to play second fiddle to Abubakar. Yet, the two maintained mutual respect and political restraint, avoiding public attacks even during the 2023 campaign. This history could pave the way for smoother negotiations around a joint ticket — possibly with Abubakar, 78, running for president, and Obi, 63, as his deputy.

Whether this formula will energize both voter bases remains uncertain. Obi, especially, enjoys strong youth support and is seen as a symbol of political reform. A perceived compromise on his independence could alienate part of his movement — unless the alliance clearly outlines a shared vision and power balance.

The PDP and LP in Decline?

The formation of the new opposition bloc is already shaking the foundations of both the PDP and the LP. While both parties insist they will continue independently, the loss of their most charismatic leaders could significantly weaken their influence. For the LP, Obi’s departure is particularly damaging, as he singlehandedly elevated the party’s status in national politics. For the PDP, losing not only Abubakar but other senior figures such as David Mark signals a broader hemorrhage of leadership.

Analyst Iliyasu Hadi suggests that the ADC could soon replace the PDP as Nigeria’s main opposition party, depending on whether remaining PDP governors and lawmakers follow suit. The realignment also raises questions about whether the PDP or LP can field presidential candidates of similar stature — an unlikely scenario at present.

Is Tinubu Still the Man to Beat?

While the opposition gathers strength, President Tinubu appears poised to run for a second term in 2027. The APC has already endorsed him, but concerns linger over his age and health — he’ll be 75 by the next election, and 79 if he completes another full term. Despite speculation over medical trips abroad, the presidency insists he remains “fit and capable.”

APC leaders, including acting chairman Ali Bukar Dalori, have dismissed the opposition alliance as a political mirage. “No one is talking about the coalition except in Abuja hotels,” he told the BBC, implying it lacks grassroots traction. Yet such confidence may prove premature if the ADC alliance capitalizes on its broad-based national appeal and learns from past fragmentation.

What Lies Ahead for 2027?

The next presidential election is still nearly two years away, but the battle lines are already being drawn. If Abubakar and Obi can maintain unity, define a coherent agenda, and avoid internal conflict, their alliance could pose the first serious challenge to APC dominance in nearly a decade.

However, the path forward is fraught with political risks: managing egos, aligning policy positions, and sustaining a grassroots campaign that resonates across Nigeria’s ethnically and regionally diverse electorate.

In Nigerian politics, alliances are often fragile and short-lived. Whether this one can survive until 2027 — and beyond — may well determine the future of democracy in Africa’s most populous nation.