The Geopolitical Landscape of the Sahel: The End of Algerian Dominance and the Rise of Morocco

Edited By: Africa Eye

A recent article by Jeune Afrique highlights significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape of the Sahel region, marked notably by the decline of Algeria’s traditional role as a regional power and influential mediator, contrasted with Morocco’s steady ascent as it works to strengthen its presence.

According to the magazine, Algerian diplomacy faces growing obstacles, including deteriorating relations with Mali and Niger—the latter refusing to engage in Algerian-led initiatives—significantly weakening Algeria’s once considerable regional influence.

In late July, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune proposed mediating between the government of Bamako and the Tuareg rebels in northern Mali. However, this initiative showed little chance of success. François Soudan, editor-in-chief of Jeune Afrique, describes Algeria’s offer as “more of a political maneuver than a serious initiative,” noting that Malian authorities reject any external mediation, particularly from Algeria, which is accused of harboring several rebel and opposition leaders, including Sheikh Mahmoud Dicko.

This rejection largely stems from a fundamental difference in approach: Algeria aims to maintain balanced relations with the Tuareg, fearing the conflict might spill over into its resource-rich southern territories, which hold significant oil and gas reserves.

Algeria’s recent retreat is also evident in two major setbacks: Mali’s withdrawal from the “Algiers Agreement” in January 2024, and Niger’s rejection in October 2023 of a civilian political transition plan proposed by Algeria. The 2015 agreement signed in Algiers was effectively suspended after the adoption of the “Peace Pact” under Ousmane Issoufi Maïga’s leadership, bringing Algeria’s role as a mutually accepted mediator to an end.

Algeria blames this decline on “hostile foreign influences,” including Morocco, Israel, and the UAE. Yet, internal factors also play a role, notably a decade of political isolation linked to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s illness and the popular Hirak movement. These developments have narrowed Algeria’s Sahel strategy to a primarily security-focused perspective, sidelining economic integration.

Meanwhile, the article points out that Morocco operates with a comprehensive and flexible vision, blending soft power, economic interests, religious ties, and security cooperation. The author terms this the “Atlantic strategy,” aimed at connecting landlocked Sahelian states to the Atlantic Ocean—a bold project still largely rhetorical but carrying profound geopolitical implications.

As Algerian mediation efforts falter, Morocco appears to be making rapid strides in establishing a growing presence in the Sahel, capitalizing on the diplomatic vacuum and shifting regional alliances in a contest for influence expected to intensify in the coming years, the article concludes.